From Clover to Computers: A Root Cause Analysis

I love spending hours in my yard doing mindless tasks. One of those tasks is pulling clover out of my lawn, starting with the far-reaching tendrils and following them back to the root. This task is so satisfying that I sometimes imagine doing it to help myself fall asleep. While I’m doing this task, I also listen to programs on public radio. So it’s no surprise that 1) manicures are wasted on me, and 2) I enjoy the task of root cause analysis. 

I have been reading and listening to news stories on shortages of various things since the pandemic started. I’ve found that computer chips and glass are the new toilet paper.

One of the tendrils? Limited availability of desktop computers and laptops. How did we get here?

Root causes: 

• The COVID-19 pandemic increased the desire for at-home entertainment  
• The shift to working from home caused laptop sales to reach decade highs.  
• The boom in the value of cryptocurrencies has reignited mining profitability, piling on demand for various high-end processing components. 
• February’s power outages from cold weather brought Samsung’s Semiconductor manufacturing operations in Austin Texas to a halt until mid-March.  
• Taiwan is also experiencing a severe drought which threatens the major semiconductor manufacturing operations in the country.  
• The US-China trade war has also seen Chinese companies, such as Huawei, stockpile chipsets and other components throughout 2020 and into 2021.

According to an article on “Android Authority”, the situation in the PC market is in tough shape, with little sign of improvement until late 2021 or even 2022. “Reputable retailers are listing PC products well above the Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail Price (MSRP), due to a combination of higher component costs, shortages, and the end to tariff exceptions in the US.”

Another tendril: limited availability of computer monitors. Why? Computer monitor screens are glass . . . 

According to one article, glass manufacturers worldwide slowed their production volumes as the Coronavirus pandemic hit.  

Root causes: 

• Restrictions in East Asia to tackle pollution caused by energy-intensive glass manufacturing  
• Two of the UK’s biggest lines will be shut down for cold maintenance programs.  
• Furnaces (I find this one the most fascinating)
  Regular daily production volumes can easily achieve thousands of tons, thanks to furnaces. These furnaces are designed to operate 24/7 without interruption or supervision. Maintenance and repairs are a must for glass melting furnaces, as over time the productivity and quality on the glass line deteriorate.For the cold repair technique, the furnace must be cooled and completely emptied. Cold repair allows detailed repairs and renovations to be made, but this method forces an interruption on production. 

  Cold repair requires a lot of planning, due to the running times being between 12 to 20 weeks and are scheduled years in advance. The cost and complexity of the plans are so fundamental that once planned, it’s almost impossible to re-arrange.

Of course, determining the root causes of the technology product supply and demand situation will not make these products available any faster; we can’t just dig out the roots. However, it does help to be able to explain these root causes to people who ask how we got here. Either it makes them feel better, or they tune me out halfway through the explanation.